The research team of Action Research Associates performed a detailed study of swing voter behavior in twelve Lebanese electoral districts in the leadup to the 2022 parliamentary elections. The research focused on the various factors pushing and pulling the Lebanese swing voter away from and towards traditional parties, the change movement, electoral alliances, votable candidates, and motives for voting. The study was carried out to inform 1) the decision-making process regarding list formation for each electoral district, and 2) the development of a media plan consisting of slogans and focused talking points for each electoral district. The research team conducted 196 in-depth interviews with voters and adopted a qualitative methodology to analyze and study the results. The final report included details that reflect the social, economic and political reality of various electoral districts and of Lebanese society in general, as well as expressions of the paradoxes that exist between religious communities and their attitudes towards each other.
For example, in some electoral districts, voters expressed their rejection of everything that is traditional, even if the traditional parties could offer a way to escape economic hardship through the clientelism they offer. In other districts, it became clear that the voter adhered more to the traditional parties for existential reasons, despite their responsibility for the economic collapse. In general, this study managed to capture the various factors that might convince swing voters to vote for change, offering the movement’s various actors valuable information on how to adapt their strategies for the then upcoming elections.